Passenger-centric resilience assessment of the Aegean ferry network under extreme weather events

The resilience of passenger ferry networks is crucial for maintaining reliable transportation in regions with dispersed islands and highly variable demand, such as the Aegean Sea. The Greek Coastal Shipping Network (GCSN) transports goods, supports tourism, and connects isolated islands to the mainland. Extreme weather events and climate change pose significant threats to the network's stability, potentially disrupting connectivity and affecting thousands of passengers. While existing research has primarily focused on port infrastructure or localized disruptions, this study introduces a passenger-oriented network resilience framework that integrates real-world passenger flows, historical meteorological data, and complex network metrics. Using centrality measures (degree and closeness), and the Largest Connected Component (LCC), the approach quantifies both the structural robustness of the network and the direct impact on passengers under extreme weather-induced disruptions. Density-based clustering is employed to identify groups of ports likely to be affected simultaneously, enabling realistic simulation of multi-node disruptions. The findings highlight the most vulnerable ports and routes, offering actionable insights for optimizing ferry schedules, and improving network redundancy. This study demonstrates a practical methodology for assessing and enhancing the resilience of island ferry networks with implications for both operational planning and long-term policy development.