The Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Prediction of Soil and Water Conservation as Carbon Sinks in Karst Areas Based on Machine Learning: A Case Study of Puding County, China

Carbon sequestration by vegetation and soil conservation are vital components in balancing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks. They also represent an efficient pathway towards achieving carbon neutrality objectives and addressing numerous environmental challenges arising from global warming. Soil and water conservation, as crucial elements of ecological civilisation development, constitute a key link in realising carbon neutrality. This study systematically quantifies and forecasts the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon sink capacity in soil and water conservation within the study area of Puding County, a typical karst region in Guizhou Province, China. Following a research approach of “mechanism elucidation–model construction–categorised estimation”, we established a carbon sink calculation system based on the dual mechanisms of vertical biomass carbon fixation via vegetative measures and horizontal soil organic carbon (SOC) retention using engineering measures. This system combines forestry, grassland, and engineering, with the aim of quantifying regional carbon sinks. Machine learning regression algorithms such as Random Forest, ExtraTrees, CatBoost, and XGBoost are used for backtracking estimation and optimisation modelling of soil and water conservation as carbon sinks from 2010 to 2022. The results show that the total carbon sink capacity of soil and water conservation in Puding County in 2017 was 34.53 × 104 t, while the contribution of engineering measures was 22.37 × 104 t. The spatial distribution shows a pattern of “higher in the north and lower in the south”. There are concentration hotspots in the central and western regions. Model comparison demonstrates that the Random Forest and extreme gradient boosting regression models are the best models for plantations/grasslands and engineering measures, respectively. The LSTM model was applied to predict carbon sink variables over the next ten years (2025–2034), showing that the overall situation is relatively stable, with only slight local fluctuations. This study solves the problem of the lack of quantitative data on soil and water conservation as carbon sinks in karst areas and provides a scientific basis for regional ecological governance and carbon sink management. Our findings demonstrate the practical significance of promoting the realisation of the “double carbon” goal.