The results of using statistical and probabilistic methods for predicting HC hydrates in the Laptev Sea segment of the Arctic

The subject of this work is the analysis of the features of using statistical and probabilistic methods adapted for forecasting quasi-ellipsoid geomorphic heterogeneities with the presence of sedimentary hydrocarbon-saturated porous rocks (hydrocarbon hydrates and accumulations of natural gas) in the Laptev marine and coastal segments of the Arctic. The object of research in this work is hydrocarbon-promising quasi-elliptical structures in the sedimentary cover of the Earth's crust in the Arctic waters of the Laptev Sea. The relevance of this work is determined by the use of relatively inexpensive mathematical methods used for statistical and probabilistic forecasting of quasi-ellipsoid geomorphic heterogeneities of potential accumulation of hydrocarbon-containing hydrates and accumulations of natural gas, in conditions of reduced financial investments and expenses of oil and gas companies for geological exploration. Mathematical (probabilistic) forecasting methods are used as a methodology for searching for hydrocarbon hydrates and natural gas accumulations. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that, based on the calculated values of statistical and probabilistic parameters, for the first time a list of hydrocarbon-promising quasi-ellipsoid geomorphological heterogeneities was formed for 48 and quasi-ellipsoid geomorphological heterogeneities in the Laptev Sea and adjacent coastal areas, based on three types of different geological and geophysical data. The conclusions of the study are that, as a result, statistical and probabilistic forecasting of zones of potential accumulation of hydrocarbon hydrates and accumulations of natural gas on the territory of the marine and coastal mainland parts of the Laptev Sea segment of the Russian Arctic was carried out. The practical significance of this work is related to the fact that as a result of the conducted research, it is possible to carry out marine seismic exploration and exploration drilling in certain hydrocarbon-promising areas.