Assessment of the economic consequences of dzud in Mongolia

Historically, pastoralism has been the leading sector of the Mongolian economy. And quite often it faces natural and climate risks. Almost every year, natural disasters (such as dzud, heavy rain, fire, lightning, infectious and non-infectious diseases, wildlife predation and accidents) kill a huge number of livestock in Mongolia. A serious threat is posed by dzud, which is expressed in the mass death of livestock and occurs not only in winter, but also in spring. The main objectives of the study were to determine the causes and consequences, as well as to assess the economic damage from dzud. The rapid increase in livestock numbers in Mongolia, especially sheep and goats, as well as significant changes in the structure (ratio of sheep and goats) have a negative impact on the condition of pastures. The pasture potential assessment was carried out for five model aimags. Both the reserve and the excess of the potential of pasture lands of nomadic farms have been revealed. It is noted that overgrazing leads to a decrease in livestock productivity, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation, and land degradation. The article presents a methodological approach to the economic assessment of losses of a nomadic economy from dzud. An economic assessment of the damage was carried out as the cost of direct product losses (meat, wool, fluff), the cost of disposal of livestock carcasses and the reduction in the value of ecosystem services of pastures. To assess the natural and anthropogenic risks of the territory of Mongolia, a methodology for the natural and anthropogenic conditioning of territories to the occurrence of risks is presented. The aimags of Mongolia were differentiated according to the coefficient of natural-anthropogenic conditions for the occurrence of risks.