A framework of evidence-based multi-hazard risk screening for disaster risk reduction and resilience planning

Multi-hazard risk assessment is essential for informed decision-making in disaster risk reduction (DRR). However, conducting fine-scale disaster risk assessments for a large number of elements at risk remains challenging. This study proposes a bottom-up, evidence-based framework for multi-hazard risk screening. It develops a risk index system for individual elements at risk based on the UNDRR’s disaster risk definition and statistically aggregates these indices to generate risk profiles at various administrative levels. The framework enables rapid identification of exposure, vulnerability, coping capacity, and risk hotspots, ranging from individual elements to entire administrative regions. By applying this approach, over 4,100 schools in Shanghai were assessed with data from the First National Comprehensive Natural Disaster Risk Census. Results indicate that 46.31% and 5.43% of schools exhibit medium-high to high exposure and vulnerability, respectively. Additionally, 13.12% and 11.43% face significant asset and overall risk, respectively. Moreover, 9.63% of schools have low to medium-low coping capacity. Hotspots were identified at the township and district levels, with the top 100 highest-risk schools, 10 most vulnerable townships, and 5 highest-risk districts highlighted. These findings provide a crucial foundation for risk-informed DRR and resilience planning, while also validating the proposed assessment framework.