Constraining African Fire CO ₂ Emissions During 2015–2016 Using Satellite XCO ₂ Retrievals

Abstract Fire CO 2 emissions are a critical component of the global carbon cycle, yet their estimates remain highly uncertain. This study introduces a satellite‐constrained inversion framework that jointly optimizes fire emissions and net ecosystem exchange using OCO‐2 XCO 2 retrievals. An observing system simulation experiment demonstrates the approach's capability to improve emission estimates, especially in regions where fires occur during the non‐growing season. Applied to Africa, the inversion yields fire emissions of 1.18 ± 0.22 PgC yr −1 for 2015–2016––about 20% higher than GFED4s and GFAS averages. Regionally, emissions were underestimated in northern Africa (∼0.25 PgC yr −1 ) due to missing burned area and overestimated in southern Africa (∼0.05 PgC yr −1 ) due to inflated fuel assumptions. The inversion reduces inter‐inventory discrepancies by 88% and reveals pronounced landscape‐dependent biases. These findings highlight the potential of XCO 2 ‐based joint inversions to enhance regional emission estimates and improve representations of fire–carbon–climate feedbacks in Earth system models.