Research on the Impact of the Reform of “Three Plots of Land” in the Yellow River Basin on Food Security

The Yellow River Basin serves as China’s core food security zone and a vital ecological barrier. However, while the “three plots of land” reform has revitalized land resources, it has also exerted complex effects on the allocation of grain production factors. Scientifically assessing the actual impacts of this policy reform on food security and identifying optimization pathways has become a critical issue for safeguarding national food security. Using panel data from 101 county-level administrative units in the Yellow River Basin covering 2010–2023, this study employs a difference-in-differences model and a moderation effect model to systematically evaluate the impact of the “three plots of land” reform policy on food security. By introducing new-type urbanization and agricultural modernization as moderating variables, it further reveals the regional heterogeneity of the policy’s operational mechanisms. The study finds that (1) the “three plots of land” reform policy significantly enhances food security levels, (2) both new-type urbanization and agricultural modernization positively amplify policy effects through moderation mechanisms, and (3) regional heterogeneity tests considering geographical location and climate conditions reveal a spatial gradient pattern of “midstream > downstream > upstream” in policy effects, clarifying the logic of regional heterogeneity. Accordingly, the “three plots of land” reform policy in the Yellow River Basin should be deepened by formulating differentiated policies based on regional heterogeneity. A moderation mechanism should be established where agricultural modernization and new urbanization synergistically support food security, comprehensively enhancing food security safeguarding capabilities.