The Characteristics and Mechanism of the Inter-Centennial Variations in Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation

Both the CESM-simulated NNU-2K dataset and proxy reconstructions of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation over the past two millennia reveal a significant centennial-scale period, including periodicities of 105, 150, and 200 years. The 105- and 200-year cycles identified in the NNU-2K all-forcing (AF) experiment closely match those found in the volcanic single-forcing (Vol) experiment, suggesting that volcanic activity is a major driver of these variations. Volcanic forcing induces global cooling, which reduces the land–sea thermal contrast and weakens the monsoon circulation. Furthermore, stronger cooling in the Northern Hemisphere decreases the interhemispheric temperature gradient and weakens the trans-equatorial pressure gradient. This, in turn, suppresses cross-equatorial low-level flow from the Southern Hemisphere, further reducing ISM precipitation. The 105- and 150-year periodicities are also consistent with those in the total solar irradiance (TSI) single-forcing experiment, indicating a substantial response to solar variability. Increased solar irradiance enhances Northern Hemisphere warming, strengthening both the interhemispheric temperature gradient and the cross-equatorial pressure gradient. These changes facilitate stronger northward cross-equatorial flow in the lower troposphere, intensifying the ISM and increasing precipitation. Concurrently, solar forcing amplifies the thermal contrast between the Eurasian continent and the Indian Ocean, further reinforcing monsoon circulation. The 150-year cycle is also evident in the control (Ctrl) experiment, implicating internal climate variability as an additional mechanism. Analysis reveals a quasi-decadal Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-like sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Pacific. Its negative phase is linked to reduced sea-level pressure over the ISM region, enhanced low-level convergence, and increased precipitation. It also strengthens the Mascarene High over the Indian Ocean, intensifying the Somali Jet and southwesterly monsoon winds, which promote greater moisture transport into the ISM domain.