Study on Changes in Vegetation Carbon Footprint and Its Influencing Factors in Xinjiang, a Typical Arid Region of China

As a typical arid region, the change in Xinjiang’s vegetation carbon footprint is crucial for assessing ecological restoration and resource allocation. This study analyzes the changes in the vegetation carbon footprint and its influencing factors in Xinjiang by employing a range of models, including Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP), carbon emission fitting, carbon footprint analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Furthermore, using the carbon deficit vegetation investment estimation method, we quantify the additional vegetation area and investment required for Xinjiang to achieve carbon neutrality. The results show the following: (1) Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) increased slowly, with six regions (Altay, Bortala, Bayingolin, Kizilsu Kirghiz, Tacheng, and Yili) contributing 66.95% of the total NEP, forming the main carbon sink. Meanwhile, carbon emissions rose significantly, coming largely from Urumqi, Changji, Kumul, and Karamay (61.31% of total emissions). (2) The carbon footprint expanded 3.44 times, from 30.41 × 104 km2 to 104.49 × 104 km2. Human activities were the main positive driver, while vegetation factors negatively influenced the carbon footprint. (3) Based on the 21-year average carbon deficit, achieving carbon neutrality in Xinjiang requires an estimated investment of USD 106.77 × 108 to expand cropland, woodland, and grassland by 8029 km2, 1710 km2, and 35,016 km2, respectively. Implementing vegetation expansion, improving carbon markets, and transforming carbon-source economies are essential to achieving the “double carbon” goal. This study clarifies regional carbon sources/sinks and supports the carbon neutrality strategy in arid ecosystems.