Determinants of South Africa’s Wine Exports to Selected East African Markets

South Africa’s wine industry has traditionally concentrated on developed nations as its principal export markets. In recent years, regional markets within East Africa have emerged as promising areas for growth. However, these markets have not been examined, with existing research predominantly centred on the export of unprocessed agricultural commodities. This study investigates the factors influencing South Africa’s wine exports to Kenya, Tanzania, and Mauritius, considering wine as a final, value-added agricultural product. A trend analysis was conducted to examine export performance from 2010 to 2022, and an augmented gravity model was employed to identify key factors. The results show a steady increase in wine exports to these markets, with strong demand in Kenya and Tanzania. The gravity model demonstrates that higher production capacity in South Africa, larger populations in the importing countries, advantageous import duty structures, and a depreciated exchange rate positively influence exports, whereas high inflation rates significantly constrain export volumes. Consequently, strategies focused on increasing production, maintaining favourable trade conditions, and leveraging market opportunities could enhance export performance. Additionally, mitigating the effects of inflation through strategic pricing policies and industry collaboration could further strengthen South Africa’s wine export position within East African markets.