A system dynamics model for achieving sustainable rice self-sufficiency in North Sulawesi

Rice self-sufficiency remains a central goal in ensuring food security for North Sulawesi, yet the province faces growing challenges from population increase, land conversion, and limited technological adoption. To address these issues, this study develops a dynamic model of a sustainable rice self-sufficiency system using the system dynamics approach. Key components of the system include land availability, adoption of high-yield paddy varieties, land preparation technology, and rice milling efficiency, complemented by diversification of carbohydrate sources beyond rice. These variables were linked through feedback loops that reflect real-world dynamics of agricultural productivity, population growth, and consumption behavior. Results of the simulation over a period of 25-year reveal that if current trends continue without major intervention, rice production in North Sulawesi will be unable to meet future consumption needs. However, integrated policies that promote the use of improved paddy varieties, mechanized land preparation, efficient milling technologies, and dietary diversification can significantly enhance long-term self-sufficiency. The combination of technological innovation and diversification strategies proved to be the most effective scenario for achieving a sustainable balance between production and consumption.