The impact of technical barriers to trade on Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports to key markets

Purpose This paper examines Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports to major destination markets including The United States, South Korea, China and Japan with a particular focus on the impact of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) during the period 2008–2023. Design/methodology/approach Using a gravity model and panel data estimation by Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator and generalized least squares (GLS) estimator, the study identifies the effects of economic fundamentals and non-tariff measures on Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports. Findings The results reveal that gross domestic product (GDP) of key export markets and depreciation of the domestic currency significantly promote exports, while COVID-19 pandemic, population growth in partner countries and geographical distance exert negative impacts. Government effectiveness and deeper integration of Vietnam into global trade enhance export capacity. Among TBTs, stricter maximum residue limits (MRLs) negatively affect Vietnam's exports due to higher compliance costs and rejection risks, while the larger number of TBT measures plays the positive role in promoting export by improving product credibility and consumer trust. The interaction between MRLs and the CPTPP agreement suggests that harmonized regulatory frameworks can mitigate restrictive effects and even stimulate exports. Research limitations/implications A key limitation of this research is that Vietnam currently has only a limited number of CPTPP trading partners, with Japan being the main partner, which may constrain the generalizability of findings regarding CPTPP's broader effects. Due to data limitations on TBTs in Vietnam's major vegetable and fruit export markets, the model includes only a set of feasible proxy variables representing TBTs. Future research could analyze the impact of TBT on a country-by-country basis to capture potential heterogeneity across countries. Originality/value The findings suggest that while TBTs pose challenges, they also create opportunities for Vietnamese exporters to upgrade production standards, diversify markets and achieve sustainable growth in the global fruit and vegetable trade.