Village-Scale Carbon Budgets and Compensation Zoning: An Empirical Analysis of Carbon Market Mechanisms in Rural Areas of North China

Rural development significantly contributes to global carbon emissions. While China’s dual-carbon goals are critical for global climate mitigation, surging rural emissions and regional disparities challenge their realization. Implementing village-scale horizontal carbon compensation zoning offers a strategic solution, though empirical evidence at this granularity remains scarce. Addressing this gap, this study conducts an empirical analysis of Laiyuan County in North China, integrating field data with village-scale carbon budget accounting. A multi-dimensional evaluation system was developed to classify and refine compensation zones. The results showed that (1) Laiyuan County exhibits a distinct “core–periphery” carbon budget pattern, with overall emissions exceeding carbon sinks. 46.6% of villages and 61.1% of townships are net carbon sources. Human respiration and domestic waste dominate the emission structure, while forests, grasslands, and shrublands provide the overwhelming majority of carbon sinks. Farmland contributes only limited sequestration, indicating an urgent need to enhance its sink capacity. (2) The multidimensional framework that incorporates Economic Contribution Coefficient (ECC), Carbon Emission Intensity (CEI), Ecological Support Coefficient (ESC), and Territorial Development Intensity (TDI) effectively guides compensation zoning, revealing positive CEI-TDI/ESC-ECC and U-shaped CEI-ECC/CEI-ESC relationships. These patterns underscore the necessity of integrated ecological–economic planning. (3) Villages can be systematically categorized into Payment Zones, Recipient Zones, and Equilibrium Zones. Integration with territorial planning further delineates 11 functional subregions, highlighting critical conflicts in subregions of Payment Zone-Permanent Basic Farmland and Payment Zone-Ecological Conservation Redline. This study advances methodologies for village-scale carbon management and provides actionable insights for achieving dual-carbon goals in rural areas of North China and beyond.