Beyond Average Effects: Performance-Dependent Logistics Challenges in Emerging Asian Transportation Trade

Background: Emerging Asian economies face a critical policy dilemma: macroeconomic and sustainability factors affect high-performing and struggling logistics exporters in fundamentally different ways. Methods: Analysing transportation trade data from China, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia (2000–2023) using Panel Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-QARDL) methodology, this study investigates asymmetric relationships between macroeconomic indicators (real GDP, inflation, real effective exchange rate), sustainability variables (energy intensity, energy prices, CO2 emissions), and logistics performance measured through transportation trade flows. Results: The results reveal striking performance-dependent heterogeneities that conventional approaches overlook. Economic growth provides 55% larger benefits to high performers (0.345) versus strugglers (0.222), confirming scale advantages. Energy constraints intensify for successful exporters, with energy intensity penalties 12% larger in upper quantiles. CO2 emissions correlate positively with logistics performance, with effects doubling from lower (0.142) to upper quantiles (0.341), highlighting an intensifying sustainability trade-off. Error correction operates 39% faster during high-performance periods. Conclusions: These asymmetric relationships challenge one-size-fits-all policies, necessitating targeted energy efficiency interventions for high performers and growth-enabling support for struggling exporters.