Gauging preference stability under authoritarianism

Do people living under authoritarianism exhibit stable, constrained preferences? Autocrats have incentives to suppress the formation of stable preferences structured by underlying constraints as such preferences can empower challengers and limit policy choices. However, research in political psychology suggests that such preferences may emerge through internal cognitive processes regardless of external conditions. We address this question using three surveys, two of which are longitudinal, in China, a theoretically important case. We find that preferences related to political institutions, economic policies, nationalistic policies, traditional social values, and ethnic policies exhibit relatively high levels of intertemporal stability over month-long and year-long periods, comparable to patterns observed in competitive electoral democracies. Moreover, individuals with higher levels of political knowledge and education exhibit more stable preferences. These findings suggest that, despite autocratic efforts to suppress stable and constrained preferences, such preferences can still take shape. We also offer practical recommendations for measuring preference configuration in authoritarian contexts.