Global Distribution of Three Parasitoids of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera, Drosophilidae): Present and Future Climate Change Scenarios

In this study, we investigated the current and future potential distribution of three parasitoid species of <i>Drosophila suzukii</i>, which represent promising candidates for the biological control of this pest: <i>Leptopilina japonica</i> (Hymenoptera, Figitidae), <i>Pachycrepoideus vindemmiae</i> (Hymenoptera, Pteromalidae), and <i>Trichopria drosophilae</i> (Hymenoptera, Diapriidae). To this end, we employed Ecological Niche Modeling using the Random Forest algorithm and climatic data from WorldClim v. 2.1 under climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), analyzing the spatial overlap between the pest and its natural enemies. The results indicate that the parasitoids exhibit distinct geographic distributions, although most species show higher suitability for temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Species such as <i>T. drosophilae</i> and <i>L. japonica</i> stand out for their broad distribution and high overlap with the pest, whereas <i>P. vindemmiae</i> and display more restrictive climatic ranges and lower control efficiency. With ongoing climate change, all parasitoids tend to migrate toward higher latitudes, with significant range contractions in tropical regions. Thus, our results demonstrate the usefulness of Ecological Niche Modeling in the selection of biological control agents by considering host-specific preferences and environmental requirements in the development of management strategies adapted to future scenarios.