Land Tenure, Socio-Economic Drivers, and Multi-Decadal Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Taita Hills, Kenya

Understanding how land tenure and socio-economic pressures shape landscape transformation is critical for sustainable management in biodiversity-rich regions. This study examines three decades (1987–2017) of land use and land cover (LU&LC) change in the Ngerenyi area of the Taita Hills, Kenya, by integrating multispectral Landsat analysis with household survey data. Harmonized pre-processing and supervised classification of four LU&LC classes, agriculture, built-up areas, high-canopy vegetation, and low-canopy vegetation, achieved overall accuracies above 80% and Kappa values exceeding 0.75. Transition modeling using the Minimum Information Loss Transition Estimation (MILTE) approach, combined with net-versus-swap metrics, revealed persistent decline and fragmentation of high-canopy vegetation, cyclical transitions between agriculture and low-canopy vegetation, and the near-irreversible expansion of built-up areas. Low-canopy vegetation exhibited the highest dynamism, reflecting both degradation from canopy loss and natural regeneration from fallowed cropland. Household surveys (n = 141) identified agricultural expansion, charcoal production, fuelwood extraction, and population growth as the dominant perceived drivers, with significant variation across tenure categories. The population in Taita Taveta County increased from 205,334 in 2009 to 340,671 in 2019, reinforcing documented pressures on land resources and woody biomass. As part of the Eastern Arc biodiversity hotspot, the landscape’s diminishing high-canopy patches underscore the importance of conserving undisturbed vegetation remnants as ecological baselines and biodiversity refuges. The findings highlight the need for tenure-sensitive, landscape-scale planning that integrates private landowners, regulates subdivision, promotes agroforestry and alternative energy options, and safeguards remaining high-canopy vegetation to enhance ecological resilience while supporting local livelihoods.