Road zoning in the Fergana Valley based on the level of traffic safety

The Fergana Valley is one of the most densely populated and traffic-intensive regions of Uzbekistan, where road safety remains a critical concern. This study develops a comprehensive zoning approach based on traffic safety levels by integrating statistical accident data, roadway characteristics, climatic conditions, and traffic flow parameters. A multilevel analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of road geometry, pavement condition, traffic density, heavy-vehicle intensity, and environmental factors on accident frequency and severity. The methodology includes the calculation of a composite safety indicator incorporating relative accident rate, combined influence factor, and road-climate criteria. Measurement procedures, uncertainty estimation, and confidence intervals were applied to ensure the reliability of the collected data. The resulting zoning scheme divides the region into distinct safety categories, providing a practical framework for traffic management, infrastructure planning, and targeted accident-reduction measures. The findings highlight key risk factors and demonstrate the importance of region-specific safety zoning for improving transport operation efficiency and reducing accident risks.