Dynamic simulation of land management for corn cultivation on critical land in Pasuruan District

Land is a critical natural resource that plays a central role in ecological balance, economic growth, and social welfare. However, increasing population pressure, unsustainable farming practices, and environmental degradation have accelerated the expansion of critical land areas, particularly in East Java, Indonesia. This study aims to develop a dynamic model scenario for managing maize (corn) cultivation on critical land in Pasuruan Regency using a systems approach. A quantitative pragmatism framework was applied, integrating physical (erosion rate calculations using the USLE method), economic (farming analysis), and social (community perception) dimensions. Model identification and simulation were carried out through causal loop and input-output diagrams, followed by verification and validation using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results show that under actual conditions, soil erosion reached 473.48 tons/ha/year (Class IV hazard), while the simulation scenario with improved conservation practices reduced erosion to 47.35 tons/ha/year (Class II hazard). Over a 10-year projection, the implementation of a 25% erosion control fund significantly increased the area of covered land and production land while reducing erosion weight. Economically, maize farming income increased from IDR 7,871,439 under actual conditions to IDR 8,517,208 in the simulation scenario, with receipts reaching IDR 10,961,909. The findings highlight that sustainable land management requires integrating conservation techniques, economic incentives, and community participation. A systemic and participatory approach can enhance both environmental resilience and agricultural productivity, ensuring long-term food security and rural livelihood sustainability.