Renewable Energy Scenarios in Türkiye: Economic Impacts, Environmental Consequences, and Sustainable Development Perspectives

ABSTRACT This study aims to assess the environmental and economic impacts that may arise within the energy supply structure of Türkiye during the transition from a fossil fuel‐dependent system to one based on renewable energy. In this context, four different scenarios in which solid fossil fuels, especially coal, are substituted by different renewable energy components are constructed. In the scenarios, wind and solar energy are defined as the main renewable resources, whilst hydroelectricity, biodiesel, bioethanol, and nuclear energy are included as substitution components at varying rates between scenarios. The economic growth and emission effects resulting from the energy substitution scenarios are presented both on a sectoral basis and across the whole economy. Findings indicate that including nuclear energy increases production but also raises emissions, whilst biofuel‐based scenarios show lower emission growth but weaker economic gains, highlighting trade‐offs in energy transition.