AI‑Driven Resilience in Ukraine's Post‑War Economy

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was accompanied by heavy human and economic losses, destroying large amounts of infrastructure as well as displacing millions of working age people. The formal employment base had shrunk to a reported 10.5 million of the surviving population (37.9 million) by early 2025[KSE Institute, 2025]. In a bid to address this, the Ukrainian government has detailed a ‘build-back-better’ recovery plan that focuses on digital transformation and mass adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).[Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, 2025re]. This paper explores the extent to which AI can help Ukraine recover economically after a war. Using a reduced micro-economic cost-benefit model, we evaluate the strategic sectors-information technology, agribusiness, manufacturing and logistics-under labour shortage and disrupted infrastructure. We calculate investment costs, labour-savings, productivity growth and payback periods under different scenarios. Sensitivity tests cover productivity improvements between 20 and 50% as well as different costs of capital. Our findings show that using AI makes good financial sense across all sectors, especially in manufacturing, where it leads to big savings on labor and boosts in productivity. In fact, companies here can get back more than double their investment in less than a year. Sectors like IT, farming, and logistics also see strong returns-at least 55% to 64%-with payback in under two years. Still, challenges remain. High upfront costs, lack of infrastructure, and shortages of skilled workers could slow down widespread adoption. There’s also a risk that AI could widen regional and gender gaps by replacing routine jobs and mostly creating new roles that require advanced skills.[Acemoglu & Restrepo, 2019]. Overall, bringing AI into Ukraine’s recovery could make the economy stronger, but it’s not a cure-all. For real, lasting progress, policymakers need to invest in people, rebuild digital and energy systems, help small and rural businesses, align AI rules with the EU, and ensure strong ethical standards so that recovery benefits everyone.[Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, 2024; European Commission, 2025]