Risk-Based Planning of Port Network Sustainability Under Conditions of Operational Uncertainty

Modern maritime transport and port systems operate in a complex environment characterized by a high frequency of technical, organizational and natural risks. The article proposes an integrated concept of risk-oriented planning aimed at improving the sustainability, reliability and efficiency of maritime transport and port networks. The model is based on a combination of multi-criteria risk assessment, analysis of the degradation of technical and behavioral safety barriers, and optimization of management interventions in real time. A system of equations has been developed that describes the dynamics of risk, availability, and efficiency of ship and port subsystems, taking into account the interdependence of technical, human, and climatic factors. The model implements the principles of project-oriented management, allowing to make decisions on resource allocation, maintenance priorities and corrective actions within the framework of digital management support systems. The modeling results showed that the implementation of targeted interventions increases the sustainability of the port network and reduces productivity losses compared to the baseline scenarios. The proposed model can be used as a methodological basis for the development of intelligent systems for managing the safety and efficiency of seaports and ship operations.