Beyond rainfall and fertilizer: Autoregressive distributed lag insights on population, greenhouse gas emissions, and wheat sustainability in Bangladesh

Climate change, coupled with rapid population growth, poses substantial and escalating risks to agricultural productivity, particularly in highly vulnerable regions such as Bangladesh. This study investigates the impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors on wheat production in Bangladesh over the period 1972–2021, using 50 years of annual data and applying an autoregressive distributed lag approach in conjunction with an error correction model. Long-run cointegration results indicate that a 1% increase in cultivated area, fertilizer application, and rainfall leads to increases in wheat production of approximately 3.19%, 1.51%, and 0.18%, respectively. In contrast, a 1% rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and population is associated with reductions in wheat production of about 2.05% and 6.89%, respectively. In the short run, a 1% increase in cultivated area, fertilizer use, gross domestic product, GHG emissions, and rainfall results in corresponding increases in wheat production of approximately 1.75%, 1.28%, 4.60%, 0.44%, and 0.05%, respectively. However, a 1% increase in the total ecological footprint reduces wheat yield by 2.41%. These findings underscore the importance of policies that expand access to government and communal land, provide subsidized fertilizers, and reduce GHG emissions to enhance wheat production and climate resilience. Furthermore, prioritizing population management is essential to mitigating adverse impacts on wheat production and ensuring long-term food security and sustainable agricultural development in Bangladesh. • Examine long- and short-run effects of climatic and socio-economic factors on wheat output. • Employ ARDL cointegration and ECM using national time-series data (1972–2021). • Cultivated area, fertilizer use, and rainfall significantly enhance long-run wheat production. • Population pressure and GHG emissions exert substantial negative long-run impacts. • Policy priorities include GHG emission mitigation, population management, and input support.