FROM DATA TO MARKETS: HOW AI TRANSFORMS EXPORT CAPACITY AND STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING OF SMES

This paper examines how artificial intelligence (AI) transforms the export capacity and strategic decisionmaking of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Drawing on empirical studies, systematic reviews, and the 2025 WTO–ICC business survey, the analysis shows that AI enhances trade efficiency by automating documentation, improving forecasting, optimising logistics, and strengthening risk management. Evidence from India, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, and Latin America demonstrates that AI capabilities increase export intensity, improve market penetration, and support data-driven strategic decisions, especially under institutional uncertainty. Survey insights reveal that nearly 90% of firms using AI report trade-related benefits, although barriers such as high implementation costs, data-privacy concerns, and limited expertise persist—particularly for MSMEs. The paper outlines practical implications for SMEs, emphasising the need to invest in skills, develop data-governance systems, adopt scalable AI solutions, and leverage AI for market intelligence, logistics automation, and cultural adaptation. Policy recommendations include regulatory clarity, financial incentives, and international cooperation to ensure inclusive AI adoption. Overall, the findings highlight AI’s potential to significantly reduce trade costs and strengthen SME competitiveness in global markets.