Renewable energy pathways in Indonesia's long-term strategy for low carbon and climate resilience 2050

This paper explores renewable energy pathways in Indonesia’s Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience (LTS-LCCR) 2050, assessing their potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and support long-term economic sustainability. A comparative scenario analysis, Business-as-Usual (BAU) versus a low-carbon scenario, was conducted using projections of capacity growth, emissions reduction, and techno-economic performance. Net Present Value (NPV) and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) were calculated for solar PV, wind, geothermal, hydropower, and biomass. Results show that biomass and geothermal provide the lowest LCOEs due to high-capacity factors, while solar PV and wind benefit from declining technology costs. Under the low-carbon scenario, GHG emissions are reduced by nearly 50% by 2050 compared to BAU, averaging about 10 million tones CO₂-equivalent per year. Sensitivity analysis identifies investment cost and capacity factor as the most critical variables. The findings highlight that targeted policy incentives, infrastructure investment, and region-specific planning are essential to accelerate Indonesia’s clean energy transition and achieve national climate goals.