Smart Urban Growth-Oriented Scenario Planning for the Development of Border Regions in Zabol: A Foresight Perspective

The development of border areas plays an important role in improving the quality of life of residents by improving economic, social, and cultural and security indicators. Cross-border interactions and the creation of border markets as key tools have stabilized the population and increased welfare. The research aimed to identify key factors affecting the development of border areas in Zabol city and to develop possible future scenarios up to 1425 based on smart growth components. The research method was a combination of documentary and survey studies, and data were collected and processed using the Delphi method, structural interaction analysis (Micmac), and morphological analysis. In the first step, 7 main indicators and 94 criteria were identified, which were reduced to 81 criteria by expert screening. The interaction analysis identified 20 key factors, of which three factors, border security, electronic services, and rail communications, had the greatest impact. Using morphological analysis, several alternative scenarios were drawn in which the combination of the security situation, the level of technology, and resource management would create different futures for the border areas of Zabol. The findings show that scenario writing can be an effective tool for managing uncertainties and formulating sustainable development policies in border regions.