Population Model: Male strike, where have they gone?

This technical note presents a throughput-based demographic model that integrates population dynamics with structural factors to explain the phenomenon of "male strike" or strategic withdrawal from committed relationships, marriage, and fatherhood. Building on Malthus-Lotka frameworks, the model incorporates variables such as fertility rates modulated by female education and economic costs, migration as a release valve for incoherence, and institutional absorption capacity (Ψ) relative to accumulated structural incoherence (N). When N exceeds Ψ, fertility declines exponentially, leading to demographic collapse. The core insight frames male withdrawal as a rational intertemporal optimization: reproductive ROI = B (benefits) - C (costs) - R (risks), where rising C and R (e.g., legal asymmetries, patrimonial exposure) surpass B, triggering non-cooperation equilibria like celibacy, detachment from bonds, and substitution with low-cost alternatives (e.g., digital sex). This is modeled as a throughput law, not psychological or ideological, predicting irreversible population contraction if education expands unchecked and risks persist. Observed in over 25 countries, including Japan and South Korea, the model underscores mechanical outcomes of cost-risk imbalances, offering policy levers for reversal without moral judgments.