The Social Construction of Wind Energy Risk: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Community Opposition Formation and Information Dynamics in U.S. Offshore Wind Development

This explanatory sequential mixed-methods study investigated the social construction of wind energy risk and the formation of community opposition to offshore wind development in the United States, focusing on New Jersey's coastal communities. The research addressed a critical gap in understanding how risk perceptions form and spread in the context of the nation's ambitious offshore wind deployment targets and recent high-profile project cancellations. Grounded in pragmatist epistemology, the study integrated quantitative survey data (N = 412) from coastal residents with qualitative data from semi-structured interviews (n = 28) and social media analysis (7,026 posts). Research questions examined: (a) factors predicting individual-level opposition, (b) information networks and social media dynamics shaping risk perceptions, and (c) the role of procedural justice in acceptance outcomes. Hierarchical multiple regression revealed that the model explained 61.4% of variance in opposition, with visual impact concerns (β = .31), property value concerns (β = .24), and procedural justice perceptions (β = -.24) emerging as the strongest predictors. Findings revealed that offshore wind opposition exhibits a distinctive predictor profile emphasizing visual and property concerns over the health and noise concerns that dominate onshore contexts. Social media has become the primary information source for 93% of interview participants, creating an information ecosystem structurally favoring opposition narratives, with 47.3% of opposition posts containing verifiable misinformation. Procedural justice perceptions partially mediated the relationship between trust in developers and opposition, with 86% of interview participants perceiving engagement processes as performative rather than genuine. The study contributes an Integrated Model of Offshore Wind Opposition Formation (IMOWOF) synthesizing risk perception, procedural justice, place attachment, and information dynamics. Implications include recommendations for enhanced engagement strategies, misinformation counter-messaging, and policy frameworks that address the social dimensions of energy transition. These findings are essential for achieving deployment targets while maintaining democratic legitimacy and community wellbeing. Keywords: offshore wind energy, community opposition, risk perception, social construction of risk, procedural justice, social media misinformation, energy transition