Nuclear Proliferation and Systemic Stability in the Middle East: The Challenge of Iran

The June 2025 Israeli and US attacks against Iran's nuclear program-Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer-represented a clear repudiation of proliferation optimism-the belief that nuclear proliferation can enhance systemic stability and limit escalation.By examining various case studies of crises and war in which at least one of the participants was an unconventional weapons power, this study challenges Kenneth Waltz and Ted Carpenter's contention that a nuclear Iran would not necessarily pose a threat to regional and systemic stability.It argues that a nuclear Iran may be emboldened to pursue its regional ambitions more aggressively, thereby undermining the interests of the United States and its allies and inviting crises with a potential risk higher than that experienced during the 1962 Caribbean Crisis.Although the United States and Israel, which perceives a nuclear Iran as an existential threat, may choose repeated military action to prevent the Islamic Republic from going nuclear, this would not address the drivers of its nuclear pursuit.Military preemption, however, could encourage Iran to pursue its nuclear ambitions even more vigorously and provide it with a pretext for crossing the nuclear threshold.Therefore, diplomatic engagement should be the key to addressing the Iranian nuclear problem, especially in the wake of military intervention.