A Hybrid PCA-TOPSIS and Machine Learning Approach to Basin Prioritization for Sustainable Land and Water Management

Population expansion, urban development, climate change, and precipitation patterns are complicating sustainable natural resource management. Subbasin prioritization enhances the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of resource management. Artificial intelligence and data analytics eradicate the constraints of traditional methodologies, facilitating more precise evaluations of soil erosion, water management, and environmental risks. This research has created a comprehensive decision support system for the multidimensional assessment of sub-basins. The Erosion and Flood Risk-Based Soil Protection (EFR), Socio-Economic Integrated Basin Management (SEW), and Prioritization Based on Basin Water Yield (PBW) functions were utilized to prioritize sustainability objectives. EFR addresses erosion and flood risks, PBW evaluates water yield potential, and SEW integrates socio-economic drivers that directly influence water use and management feasibility. Our approach integrates principal component analysis–technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (PCA–TOPSIS) with machine learning (ML) and provides a scalable, data-driven alternative to conventional methods. The combination of machine learning algorithms with PCA and TOPSIS not only improves analytical capabilities but also offers a scalable alternative for prioritization under changing data scenarios. Among the models, support vector machine (SVM) achieved the highest performance for PBW (R2 = 0.87) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) performed best for EFR (R2 = 0.71), while random forest (RF) and gradient boosting machine (GBM) models exhibited stable accuracy for SEW (R2 ~ 0.65–0.69). These quantitative results confirm the robustness and consistency of the proposed hybrid framework. The findings show that some sub-basins are prioritized for sustainable land and water resources management; these areas are generally of high priority according to different risk and management criteria. For these basins, it is suggested that comprehensive local-scale studies be carried out, making sure that preventive and remedial measures are given top priority for execution. The SVM model worked best for the PBW function, the ANN model worked best for the EFR function, and the RF and GBM models worked best for the SEW function. This framework not only finds sub-basins that are most important, but it also gives useful information for managing watersheds in a way that is sustainable even when the climate and economy change.