An Interpretable Hybrid RF–ANN Early-Warning Model for Real-World Prediction of Academic Confidence and Problem-Solving Skills

Early identification of students at risk for low academic confidence, poor problem-solving skills, or poor academic performance is crucial to achieving equitable and sustainable learning outcomes. This research presents a hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) framework that combines feature selection using a Random Forest (RF) algorithm with data classification via an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict risks related to Academic Confidence and Problem-Solving Skills (ACPS) among higher education students. Three real-world datasets from Saudi universities were used: MSAP, EAAAM, and MES. Data preprocessing included Min–Max normalisation, class balancing using SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique), and recursive feature elimination. Model performance was evaluated using five-fold cross-validation and a paired t-test. The proposed model (RF-ANN) achieved an average accuracy of 98.02%, outperforming benchmark models such as XGBoost, TabNet, and an Autoencoder–ANN. Statistical tests confirmed the significant performance improvement (p < 0.05; Cohen’s d = 1.1–2.7). Feature importance and explainability analysis using a Random Forest and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) showed that psychological and behavioural factors—particularly study hours, academic engagement, and stress indicators—were the most influential drivers of ACPS risk. Hence, the findings demonstrate that the proposed framework combines high predictive accuracy with interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability. Practically, the model supports Sustainable Development Goal 4 (Quality Education) by enabling early, transparent identification of at-risk students, thereby empowering educators and academic advisors to deliver timely, targeted, and data-driven interventions.