Spatiotemporal Evolution and Spillover Effects of Tourism Industry and Inclusive Green Growth Coordination in the Yellow River Basin: Toward Sustainable Development

Balancing tourism industry (TI) growth and ecological protection is critical for sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China’s vital ecological security barrier and economic belt. However, existing research lacks a spatial perspective on the coordinated development between TI and inclusive green growth (IGG), with limited understanding of cross-regional spillover mechanisms. Based on panel data from 75 cities in the YRB (2011–2023), this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation system encompassing the scale, structure, and potential dimensions of the TI and the economic, social, livelihood, and environmental dimensions of IGG. The study employs the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to examine spatiotemporal evolution and spillover effects. The results reveal an upward yet fluctuating coordination trend with pronounced spatial heterogeneity, characterized by a “downstream–midstream–upstream” gradient pattern, dual-core radiation centered on the Jinan–Qingdao and Xi’an–Zhengzhou agglomerations, and persistent High–High clusters in the Shandong Peninsula contrasted with Low–Low clusters in the upstream Qinghai–Gansu–Ningxia region. Critically, new-quality productive forces exert significant positive direct and spillover effects, while industrial structure and government intervention have inhibitory spatial effects on adjacent cities. Regional heterogeneity analysis confirms factor-endowment-driven differentiation across upstream, midstream, and downstream areas. These findings advance spatial spillover theory in river basin contexts and provide evidence-based pathways for balancing economic growth with ecological protection in ecologically sensitive regions worldwide, directly supporting multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals.