Validation of Downscaled SoilMERGE with NDVI and Storm-Event Analysis in Oklahoma and Kansas

SoilMERGE (SMERGE) is a 0.125-degree root zone soil moisture (RZSM) product (0 to 40 cm depth) covering the contiguous United States. The study area included most of Oklahoma and Kansas, a region where SMERGE exhibited superior performance. The time frame examined was the warm season from 2008 to 2019. In this study, evaluation of a prototype downscaled (500 m) version of SMERGE was made using (1) Ranked correlation (R2) benchmarking against Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and (2) Ranked correlation (R2) analysis of antecedent RZSM with storm-event streamflow across a range of precipitation intensities (5 to >35 mm/day) at a watershed scale. In the NDVI benchmarking, all three downscaled products outperformed (0.52 to 0.59) default SMERGE (0.44). EXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Gradient Boost recorded a higher ranked correlation (0.59) than Random Forest (0.52). Within the study area, ranked correlation analysis of antecedent RZSM with storm-event United States Geological Survey streamflow was examined in five watersheds. For the most intense storm events (>35 mm), antecedent XGB downscaled SMERGE (0.64) outperformed antecedent streamflow (0.43) and all other versions of SMERGE (0.52 to 0.56) as a predictor of storm event response. The results of this study demonstrated broad-scale benefits of Machine Learning-assisted downscaling, providing proof of concept for the development of state-based SMERGE products across the US Great Plains.