Assessment of Cropland Protection Urgency and Simulation of Resilient Spatial Regulation in the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle

The growing pressure on global cropland resources has become increasingly evident. Reconciling the urgency of cropland protection with long-term food demand is crucial for achieving resilient and sustainable cropland management. Here, we develop a comprehensive agricultural dataset and a five-dimensional evaluation framework encompassing quantity, quality, structure, ecology, and sustainability. Through synergy–trade-off analysis and structural equation modeling, we elucidate the interrelationships among these dimensions and their external drivers. By projecting future cropland retention under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and integrating multi-dimensional urgency, we propose a spatially explicit framework for resilient cropland management. The results show that (1) cropland protection urgency in the Chengdu–Chongqing Economic Circle exhibits a clear spatial gradient—low in the core areas and high along the periphery, where high-urgency zones are typically characterized by fragmentation, lower quality, and weaker ecological functions. (2) Eleven biophysical and socioeconomic factors collectively explain 23–50% of the variance in cropland protection urgency, with terrain conditions and urbanization levels exerting the strongest influence on cropland quantity, structure, and sustainability. (3) Under the SSPs, the maximum cropland retention reaches 6.944 million ha, with a future fallow ratio not exceeding 6.05%, and 45.05% of cropland designated as reserve resources. (4) Cropland within core protection zones demonstrates multi-dimensional advantages but accounts for less than 5%, highlighting the need for targeted conservation strategies. By integrating cropland protection urgency with long-term food security constraints, this study proposes a multi-level, multizonal resilience management strategy that offers practical guidance for cropland-stressed regions undergoing rapid urbanization worldwide.