Predicting the Interorganizational Diffusion of Prefabricated Construction Technology: Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

The diffusion of prefabricated construction technology (PCT) extends beyond organizational boundaries to realize its potential economic benefits, facilitating prefabricated construction (PC) advancement. Prior research fails to elucidate the decision interaction between organizations, leaving the internal logic of technology diffusion still unclear. This study aims to reveal the underlying mechanism and predict the trend of PCT diffusion. First, the interaction rules among organizations were designed to reveal the microscopic mechanism of PCT diffusion, and an agent-based modeling and simulation were carried out. Then, the cooperative patents of Chinese PC-related organization were collected, and a potential adopter network of PCT was constructed based on real data. The diffusion trend of PCT was predicted, and the development stages were divided. Both the individual influences and synergistic effects of three key factors on the PCT diffusion were discussed. The results indicate the diffusion of PCT presents an S-shape, with an evolutionary stable depth of 91.2%. The diffusion curve is divided into four stages: exploration (policy-driven), expansion (technology-market synergy), growth (network effect), and maturation. High technology maturity and positive industry development both lead to greatly improved diffusion speed and depth of PCT, with comparable trends. Strong government support significantly accelerates diffusion of PCT in the early stages but has little effect on its evolutionarily stable depth. Synergistic implementation of key influencing factors contributes to the coupling effect on promoting PCT. The methodology proposed by this study integrates social network analysis and agent-based modeling and simulation to predict the evolution, including the trend characteristics and their underlying logics, of PCT diffusion. This is different from previous studies and applicable to the evolution research on technology adoption in other comparable domains, such as building information modeling (BIM). The conclusions provide quantitative suggestions for the government to effectively promote PC at different stages as a whole.