Does Ansoff’s Strategic Posture Anticipate Stock Returns? Evidence From NVIDIA and Intel (2015–2023)

This study investigates whether Ansoff’s Strategic Posture (SP)—the alignment among environmental turbulence, strategic aggressiveness, and internal capabilities—anticipates stock returns more effectively than traditional Wall Street analyst ratings. Using a two-firm semiconductor panel (NVIDIA and Intel, 2015–2023), SP is externally coded through a 65-item, behaviorally anchored instrument adapted from the OSPP framework and validated with inter-rater reliability. Panel regressions with firm and month fixed effects and standard asset-pricing controls (size, momentum, and Fama–French factors) show that SP significantly predicts monthly stock returns, while analyst ratings add limited incremental power. The SP×VIX interaction is positive, indicating that alignment is especially valuable during periods of heightened market uncertainty. Robustness checks—including alternative return horizons, placebo lead–lag tests, and alternative uncertainty proxies—confirm the stability of results. We discuss mechanisms such as innovation cadence, product-cycle timing, and capital allocation, and we temper conclusions to reflect the paper’s two-firm scope.