Understanding multiple pathways of the impacts of socio-economic shocks on large carnivores

1. Large carnivores are ecologically, economically and socially important, but they are also among the most threatened species worldwide. These species face numerous threats, most importantly habitat transformation, prey depletion and hunting. All of these threats could be exacerbated by socio-economic shocks—such as financial crises, wars, pandemics or political regime shifts—that can cause sudden and structural changes in social-ecological systems. However, the different pathways through which such shocks impact large carnivores are unclear. 2. Here, we used a social-ecological systems approach to build a conceptual framework that investigates these pathways. We used expert workshops and case-specific, narrative literature reviews to illustrate this framework for three cases: (1) impacts of economic sanctions on the Asiatic cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) in Iran, (2) impacts of global commodity price shocks on the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Bolivia and (3) impacts of the collapse of the Soviet Union on the snow leopard (P. uncia) in Kyrgyzstan. 3. We found that conservation and agricultural institutions were crucial for carnivore conservation, despite the different nature of the shocks and the different socio-economic settings across cases. We identified linkages between carnivore conservation and the global economy at the levels of nations and communities, which increased the vulnerability of carnivores to shocks. 4. Our cases highlighted the need to proactively create resilient institutions focused on local capacity building, enhancement of social stability and built on internal motivations for conservation, to secure the future of large carnivores in turbulent times.