Polarization in Flood Risk Management? Sensitivity of Norm Perception and Responsibility Attribution to Frequent Flood Experience

Abstract. In this study, we examine the relationship between frequent flood experience (FFE), norm perception, and responsibility attribution. Given that floods are assumed to occur more often in the future and that perceived norms and responsibility attribution are drivers of individual-level protective behavior against them, understanding these relationships is vital. The data for the current study come from a household survey conducted in flood-prone regions of the Federal State of Saxony (Germany) in 2020. We applied regression analyses to test for nonlinear relationships between FFE, responsibility attribution for flood risk management, and perception of social norms supporting private flood-protective behavior. In addition, we tested for moderating effects of these relationships. We identified four key findings. First, the relationship between frequent flood experience and responsibility attributions follows a nonlinear path. Changes in norm perceptions are less dynamic. Specifically, variations in effect strength and direction can only be observed for the perception of injunctive norms. Second, we detect a diverging trend among respondents who experienced multiple flood events, with greater responsibility attributed to public authorities and less to their own communities. Third, under consideration of interaction effects, we find increasing discrepancies in responsibility attributions and perception of social versus personal norms after the third flood event, depending on self-efficacy, control beliefs, and ingroup identification. Fourth, we observe a contradicting trend between perceived norms for protective behavior and responsibility attribution to the self/the community. These findings suggest a potential polarization in flood risk management, shaped by the perceived ability to manage floods and the social environment.