Crime, Crackdowns, and Democracy in Ecuador

Abstract: Ecuador has shifted from relative peace to extreme violence, with homicide rates soaring as state capacity and security institutions were dismantled after Rafael Correa's presidency. Daniel Noboa, elected in 2023 and reelected in 2025, has responded with a militarized mano dura strategy, invoking internal armed conflict, frequent states of emergency, and expanded military roles. These measures have not reduced violence but have weakened judicial independence, constrained protest, and raised human-rights concerns. A failed 2025 referendum to reshape institutions and permit foreign bases exposed limits to Noboa's mandate. The essay argues that rebuilding state capacity and preserving democratic checks are essential to confront crime effectively.