Identifying climate‐change refugia for species management and conservation in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract The impacts of climate change are already affecting many species and habitats, presenting challenges for species management and conservation. Protecting climate refugia—areas buffered from climate shifts where species can persist despite broader changes—has been proposed as a tool for managing species under climate change. Although many studies have mapped climate refugia, few have identified them for specific species at scales relevant to local management. To address this gap, we identified potential climate refugia for seven species of concern in the Pacific Northwestern United States: Cascade torrent salamander ( Rhyacotriton cascadae ), Rocky Mountain tailed frog ( Ascaphus montanus ), coastal tailed frog ( Ascaphus truei ), Greater Sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), pygmy rabbit ( Brachylagus idahoensis ), fisher ( Pekania pennanti ), and White‐headed Woodpecker ( Leuconotopicus albolarvatus ). Collaborating with managers and species experts, we identified key factors influencing refugia locations and integrated multiple spatial data layers to map potential refugia for each species. For the three aquatic species, potential refugia included streams with cooler current and projected future temperatures, sustained future streamflow, and watersheds with greater canopy cover and cool valley bottoms. For the terrestrial species, refugia were linked to fire risk, ecological transformations, range shifts, soil moisture, and topographic complexity. Identifying potential refugia can guide conservation by prioritizing areas for protection and management. Sites with high‐quality habitat but limited refugia potential could become conservation priorities if habitat quality declines, whereas lower‐quality sites with greater refugia potential may warrant further protection. Areas with poor refugia potential may benefit from management actions to enhance resilience. Although expanding this approach to all species of concern would be valuable, it remains resource intensive. We conclude with recommendations for improving the efficiency of refugia identification in future studies.