The Jevons Paradox and Vernon’s Product Life Cycle: Evidence from Primary–Secondary Price Differentials in Copper and Aluminium (2002–2021) with 2024–2025 Market Context

This study examines how efficiency improvements associated with Jevons’ Paradox and product-system maturation, as described by Vernon’s Product Life Cycle (PLC), jointly influence the long-term pricing relationship between primary and recycled copper and aluminium. Using author-provided nominal annual USD price series for 2002–2021, the analysis derives descriptive indicators most notably the recycled-to-primary (R/P) price ratio to characterize structural shifts consistent with PLC-driven secondary integration. Recent market conditions in 2024–2025, including tight physical availability, low inventories, regional premia, and recurrent episodes of backwardation, are incorporated as qualitative context without merging with the historical dataset. Results indicate a sustained narrowing of R/P discounts for both metals by 2021. The combined Jevons–PLC interpretation suggests that efficiency-driven service expansion and supply-side tightness increase the relative value of secondary material, supporting long-term convergence between primary and recycled streams.