Bubbles Identification in the New Round of Technological Prosperity: Evidence from Strategic Emerging Industries in China

The study conducts an in-depth analysis of the development trends in China’s strategic emerging industries amid the new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation, with a particular focus on the phenomenon of stock market bubbles. This research constructs a new theoretical framework for real-time monitoring and early warning of bubble risks and systematically investigates these bubbles by using the Kalman filter technique and the CUSUM control chart algorithm. Through empirical analysis, the model successfully identifies the super-exponential bubbles in the stock indices of strategic emerging industries between 2014 and 2015 and between 2019 and 2021. Further research findings suggest that short-term increases in market liquidity may trigger bubble formation, while sustained government policy support and long-term investor confidence in emerging industries play a crucial role in the continued development of these bubbles. The study proposes a series of policy recommendations aimed at mitigating bubble risks and promoting stable and sustainable economic development.