National Trends and Drivers of Hypertension Prevalence in Nigeria: Implications for Public Health Policy

Hypertension remains a major public health issue in Nigeria, contributing significantly to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Despite ongoing interventions, its national prevalence continues to fluctuate due to a combination of behavioural, nutritional, and socioeconomic determinants. This study investigated the annual trend in hypertension prevalence and examined the influence of alcohol consumption, obesity, anaemia in women, and political stability and absence of violence between 2000 and 2020 using national time-series data. Regression technique was employed to estimate the relationships between these variables, complemented by Granger causality tests to determine the direction of influence. The results revealed that alcohol consumption and obesity exert significant positive effects on hypertension prevalence, indicating the growing impact of unhealthy lifestyle behaviours on cardiovascular health among the Nigerian population. Anaemia in women also demonstrated a significant positive association, suggesting that nutritional deficiencies and compromised physiological conditions may heighten vulnerability to elevated blood pressure. In contrast, political stability and reduced violence were associated with lower prevalence, highlighting the role of social security and governance in promoting better health outcomes. Evidence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causality underscores the dynamic interactions among these determinants. The study concludes that addressing hypertension in Nigeria requires integrated strategies focusing on behavioural modification, nutritional improvement, and strengthened national institutions. Policy actions that emphasise health promotion, preventive care, and improved living conditions are essential for effectively reducing the burden of hypertension and advancing national health development goals.