Sustainable Optimization of Residential Electricity Consumption Using Predictive Modeling and Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring

To ensure reliable, efficient and sustainable operation of modern power networks, accurate load forecasting is an important task in system planning and control. It is also a crucial task for the efficient operation of smart grids to maintain a balance between load shifting, load management and power dispatch. In this regard, this research study aims to investigate the efficiency of various machine learning models for whole-house energy consumption prediction and appliance-level load disaggregation using Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM). The primary objective is to determine which model offers the most accurate forecasts for both individual appliance consumption patterns and the total amount of energy used by the household. The empirical study presents comparative performance analysis of machine learning models, i.e., Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Regressor (SVR) for load forecasting and load disaggregation. This research is conducted on PRECON: Pakistan Residential Electricity Dataset consisting of 42 Pakistani households. The dataset was recorded originally as one minute per sample, but the proposed study aggregated it to hourly samples to evaluate models’ alignment with the typical sampling rate of smart meters in Pakistan. It enables the models to more accurately depict implementation scenarios in real-world settings. The statistical measures MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2 have been employed for performance evaluation. The proposed Random Forest algorithm out-performs all other employed models, with the lowest error values (MAE: 0.1316, MSE: 0.0367, RMSE: 0.1916) and the highest R2 score of 0.9865. Furthermore, for detecting appliance events from aggregate power data, ensemble models such as Random Forest performed better than other models for ON/OFF prediction. To evaluate the suitability of machine learning models for real-time, appliance-level energy forecasting using Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM), this study presents a novel evaluation framework that combines learning speed and edge adaptability with conventional performance metrics (e.g., R2, MAE). This paper introduces a NILM-based approach for load forecasting and appliance-level ON/OFF prediction, representing its capacity to improve residential energy efficiency and encourage sustainable energy consumption, while emphasizing operational metrics for implementation in embedded smart grid systems—an area mainly neglected in prior NILM-based research articles. The results provide useful information for improving demand-side energy management, facilitating more effective load disaggregation, and maximizing the energy efficiency and responsiveness of smart grids.