AET-FRAP—A Periodic Reshape Transformer Framework for Rock Fracture Early Warning Using Acoustic Emission Multi-Parameter Time Series

The timely identification of rock fractures is crucial in deep subterranean engineering. However, it remains necessary to identify reliable warning indicators and establish effective warning levels. This study introduces the Acoustic Emission Transformer for FRActure Prediction (AET-FRAP) multi-input time series forecasting framework, which employs acoustic emission feature parameters. First, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) is employed to identify and filter periodicities among diverse indicators and select input channels with enhanced informative value, with the aim of predicting cumulative energy. Thereafter, the one-dimensional sequence is transformed into a two-dimensional tensor based on its predominant period via spectral analysis. This is coupled with InceptionNeXt-an efficient multiscale convolution and amplitude spectrum-weighted aggregate-to enhance pattern identification across various timeframes. A secondary criterion is created based on the prediction sequence, employing cosine similarity and kurtosis to collaboratively identify abrupt changes. This transforms single-point threshold detection into robust sequence behavior pattern identification, indicating clearly quantifiable trigger criteria. AET-FRAP exhibits improvements in accuracy relative to long short-term memory (LSTM) on uniaxial compression test data, with R² approaching 1 and reductions in Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). It accurately delineates energy accumulation spikes in the pre-fracture period and provides advanced warning. The collaborative thresholds effectively reduce noise-induced false alarms, demonstrating significant stability and engineering significance.