Assessing climate change effects on meteorological drought in the extra-arid climate of Bandar Abbas, Iran, using CMIP6 and a multivariable standard precipitation index (MSPI)

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of climate change on drought severity in the hyper-arid region of Bandar Abbas, Iran, a location highly vulnerable to water resource challenges. Climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used, focusing on the CanESM5, GFDL-ESM4, MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and MIROC-ES2L models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2061–2090. The CanESM5 model was chosen for its accuracy in replicating historical climate data, and the LARS-WG downscale model was applied. Trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator revealed statistically significant trends in precipitation for January, August, and November. Projections based on the multivariable standardized precipitation index (MSPI) indicate that Bandar Abbas to experience more intense and longer-duration droughts in the future under both climate scenarios. The MSPI also indicated a downward trend, pointing to heightened drought severity in the studied region. The research endeavors to offer insights crucial for developing effective management strategies, aimed at safeguarding the ecosystem and easing adaptation to anticipated climate change impacts.