THE DETERMINING FACTORS OF FUEL SUBSIDIES IN BOLIVIA

The fuel subsidy has formed the central pillar of Bolivian economic policy, it is a constant instrument of its fiscal policy, created to guarantee access to supply to the vehicle fleet and its productive apparatus, stabilize domestic prices and mitigate inequalities in a context of high poverty and labor informality. Thus, with its State policy of importing fuels and the respective subsidy of diesel oil and gasoline, it preserved and controlled inflation for more than 30 years with its respective macroeconomic variables. In this understanding, the objective of this research is to identify, analyze and determine which are the determining variables of the total import of fuels and their respective subsidy, the latter variable, the fuel subsidy dependent on the variables of study such as GDP, inflation, public debt, fiscal balance, public spending, trade balance, the exchange rate and net international reserves that will be studied, based on a time series sample from 2006 to 2025. To analyse these data, we will first make the polynomial projections of each of the variables in relation to the fuel subsidy. Subsequently, we developed a multiple regression of the independent variables in correlation to fuel subsidies, the results obtained showed that inflation is the most correlated followed by public debt and international reserves with a multiple correlation coefficient of 93%.