Material bottlenecks of batteries within the energy transition

The growing adoption of electric vehicles has significantly increased demand for advanced energy storage solutions. Lithium-ion batteries are at the forefront, primarily used in electric vehicles and increasingly in stationary renewable energy storage systems. However, their reliance on critical resources has spurred research into alternative cathode materials and next-generation battery types. Since it is unclear whether such advances can offset expected material shortages, we assess whether global reserves, production, and recycling capacity can support the projected battery growth. Based on IPCC scenarios up to 2050, our analysis shows that even under optimistic assumptions, the planned battery expansion in the Sustainability and Middle of the Road scenarios cannot be achieved. Excluding recycling would lead to a 33% increase in cumulative primary material demand, exacerbating supply risks and resulting in greater underproduction. These findings underscore the importance of expanding recycling, second-life, and production infrastructure, as well as pursuing a diversified technology strategy.