How Milk Quotas and the CAP Affect GI Systems: The Case of Parmigiano Reggiano PDO

Milk quota policies in the European Union have long shaped dairy production, but their transformation into a tool restricted to Geographical Indications (GIs) raises new concerns about their effects on GI agricultural and rural systems. After encompassing the historical reasons that led to the new policy framework this study assesses the economic, environmental, and social impacts of quotas management under the greening measures of the Common Agricultural Policy 2023-2030. This is carried out by applying an ex-ante analysis using the AGRISP model, which combines Positive Mathematical Programming with Agent-Based Modeling. The case study of the Parmigiano Reggiano PDO is considered. Simulation results show that, while quotas increase production volumes and efficiency and do not strongly hinder marginal activities, they worsen farmers’ profits and environmental outcomes compared to a no-quota scenario. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the current milk quota policy in a production context underexplored in recent literature.