Criminality Trends Through Socio-Economic Factors: A Two Decade Panel ARDL Analysis of Upper-Middle-Income Nations (2000–2021)

This study explores the socio-economic factors influencing criminality in 44 upper-middle-income nations (UMIN) from 2000 to 2021. While previous research has focused on high- and low-income nations, UMIN remain understudied despite their unique challenges. Using panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling and principal component analysis (PCA) to create a composite governance index, the findings show that GDP growth, gender parity, and governance quality significantly reduce crime in the long term. Conversely, urbanization, income inequality, and inflation increase crime. Short-term effects are largely insignificant, except for gender parity, which paradoxically show a positive association, possibly reflecting transitional societal dynamics. These results emphasize the need for integrated policies that target governance improvement, promote sustainable development, and enhance urban planning to effectively reduce crime.